| | | U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $60.5 billion U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $60.5 billion, up $1.5 billion over the February estimate but remain $1.8 billion below the record set in 2004. Compared to 2004, export value is lower because record global grain, oilseed, and cotton supplies have lowered prices and increased competition. Partially offsetting these declines, strong demand and a weaker dollar are boosting exports of horticultural and dairy products and pork. The agricultural trade surplus is revised to $2 billion.
The upward revision for the export forecast since February mostly reflects reduced competition in soybean markets and a stronger outlook for pork. U.S. soybean export volume is raised due to a drought in Brazil which has lowered the 2004/05 soybean crop. Pork exports are forecast at a record $2.3 billion with gains in volume and unit value. In another key revision, U.S. corn export volume is lowered due to abundant global feed grain supplies and increased competition from Argentina and China.
U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at $58.5 billion, a slight increase over February’s estimate and $5.8 billion above the record set in 2004. This large year-to-year increase in value is mostly due to higher prices for imports, which are the result of a weaker dollar, higher fuel costs, and strong U.S. consumer demand. The largest annual gains are forecast for horticultural products (especially fruits, essential oils, and wine), dairy products, coffee beans, and natural rubber.
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